RIMM needs to have an upper hand

Research in Motion reported a dim future profit projection in coming quarters. Stock price plummeted 11% on the day. On surface, earning isn't that bad. Profit up 37% in the past quarter. The widely expected Playbook is a lethal weapon that could be a turning point of the game. That is the only buying point for RIMM.

If there is only one hope, that is going to be problematic.

RIMM lost its upper hand since other smart phone vendors started filling their product lines, especially Apple's iPhone. Since then RIMM slowly lost market shares. Even worse, unaware of (or not soon enough) threaten from tablets, RIMM now is in an awkward position: smart phone market is under fierce competition so even a recent announcement of developing country marketing didn't generate any fanfare. Developing countries mean low profit margin and lower prices. Investors don't buy it. Outspoken analysts said they don't believe RIMM's management had a viable plan at all.

On the tablet side, RIMM is already behind Apple and others. Playbook seems a fire fighter to rescue but not well prepared. Features are not as rich as iPad such as wireless functions. Due to development and marketing cycle, there may be a few more quarters to mature the product. Can it wait that long?

RIMM needs something to turn around to regain upper hand. One problem for iPhone and iPad is security. RIMM still has large market because of their security. However, if they don't open application base, they are going to repeat smart phone's loss again over Playbook. Another way to regain upper hand, which is a harder and more desperate, is mimic Nokia's path to ally with Microsoft. Microsoft didn't plan to have any tablet from Steve Ballmore. But if price is correct, it would be possible.

Short term speaking, RIMM is in trouble and it is ordeal to the management.