Sunday, August 19, 2012

Chase bank and Facebook

I recently needed to find Chase bank branch locations. After typing in a zip code on Chase's locator, I found quite a few branches are labelled "coming soon". This finding confirms that JPMorgan Chase is the rare exception among big banks that is still hiring. Citi and BofA have announced restructuring. But Chase, the retail banking arm of JPMorgan, needs to much more to catch up, compared to other retail oriented banking giants. The first personal feel of Chase banks, more than in one location, is its vacancy. Not many bankers are there. There are tellers but most of the time, I would say 90%, there was a waiting line for a banker. Wait time may be as long as 30 minutes. So Chase invests more on the retail banking side, it is a good news for customers.It is also interesting to see why JP wants to expand into retail.

Dimon, JPMorgan's CEO, came from an investment banking background such as merger and acquisition (M&A). He is also famous on risk model and control as well as macromanagement. "You don't run a business hoping you don't have a recession," he said.JP Morgan's information systems had been upgraded to help him get reports when he needs them. He also spent countless hours on scenario planning, particular what-if's when another bear market comes. For example, they do stress tests that how earnings is affected if 10% unemployment rate. (Thus a side note to JP's White Whale loss: with such high visibility, such losses still occurred. People then questioned "The Thoughest Guy on Wall Street", dubbed by the Fortune magazine, is really that tough? Sometimes people just made mistakes). Another business model he would like to coach is "don't do stupid things. Let others do stupid things" and "we think the business should be prepared for adverse times. In fact, we think if you're strong in adverse times that puts you in the position where you actually can do more interesting things, either hire people or buy other companies that are having a tough time." So if JP decides to expand into retail while others are shrinking, that is when he is taking advantage of the weakening competitors.

Facebook unlocked 271 million shares owned by IPO investors and participated directors on last Thursday. Price thus dropped. However, the drop is not hard relatively to the number of shares unlocked and shares currently trading. Employees aren't unlock yet until October. Investors can be in IPO's many times while it is rare for employees involve in IPO like this. Of course, the biggest seller is Mark Zuckerburg.

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