Sunday, March 3, 2013

When news in sync'ed, be careful

Just two weeks ago, before the sequester negotiation entered the last two weeks, media was vigorously looking for bad news. Warnings that a volatile market was about to come appeared everywhere, every time. Traders were looking for chances that they would pound the market. Debates how the sequester would impact the economy were hot. Now that the sequester is behind us and the Dow is just razor shy from the record high, the media became overwhelming promising on another record Dow.

This is a dangerous time, when everyone is talking about the same thing. Traders entered early are recruiting followers, under the name of "the Great Rotation" before the bond bubble bursts. In fact, there are other opportunities than the equity market: housing related (not real estate) industries, depressed European market, etc.

Contranian is a sense that accumulated from experience. It is true and very likely new funds would push up the market more. But watch out closely what drives it up, particular what would smash it down.

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