Saturday, June 28, 2008

Shopping gaming and value investing

Shopping gaming is a largely psychic play. Calculating what seller's and your interaction results in different results. Sometimes it is hard to tell when you win or lose. For example, many stores are offering discount, 30% or 50% off. How do you know if they would go further down even after these fire sales?

If you have a chance of bargaining with the seller, there is art of negotiation in this case. The key is to find out what the bottom line is. Do you want to make an offer first or slam his offered price? Making an offer is risky since you don't know his bottom line. Too high will sadden you. Too low you might be pissed off and lose the deal. What to do? Obviously, low ball is better off for your pocket. The key is leave leeway in further bargaining. For example, you put yourself in a layman position. A too low offer doesn't upset the seller because you're a rookie. The game can be ongoing.

It is not obvious how this shopping game related to value investing. It becomes so after realizing that these two situations all seek to find "intrinsic value" and this value is hard to find in these situations too. Intrinsic value can be growth, asset, or cash flow etc. It is similar you may shop something for its color, size, price etc. Not a fixed form for this value. At this moment, you can see their similarities. Is there a correct answer? No, it is up to purchasers' taste. But lower your offer is always good and you don't need to worry about being pissed off. The only thing is set up a window that comforts your expectation.

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