Nearing bottom, but not out

Some economical data shows the bottom is nearing.

1. The Jan 2009 consumer credit showed the first (meager) rise of 0.8% compared to previous month. This data has been down 3 months in a row by large margin, about -3.2% each month.

2. China's manufacturing index rose too.

3. After unemployment rate hits 8.1%, the room to have more layoffs has become harder.

4. On the market side, short sellers began short coverage 'cause short risk becomes greater as the market indexes surpassed 26-year lows. Remember shorts are dangerous even the markets are side-running.

5. Leading economical bodies, for example, the Silicon Valley region, have been experiencing large scale layoffs that brought a sluggish growth and outflux to other less expensive areas. Such outflow further slows downtrend momentum.

But the bottom would last long even it were hitting it now. Less spending and long-lasting stimulus plan as well as shaky banking system all take times to re-start the economy again. The Great Depression took 5 years (1929-1934) to somehow recovered. This ongoing one has already taken 2 years (starting from the end of 2007), it may take another 2 years to back to track. I don't expect this would last longer that the Great Depression because we have learned lessons from it and the much larger scale forces the world to react together.