Sunday, July 27, 2008

Security value analysis and Buffet's philosophy

Browsing Graham and Todd's classical "Security analysis", which is also strongly and repeatedly quoted by Warren Buffet, here are some keys that trace the similarities in the book and Buffet's philosophy, for example, no dividend has been paid in Hathaway for a while but investors have been rewarded by great growth. Arguments are still sound. I added "Corollary" section myself.

common-stock investment cannon (proposed by B. Graham in 1933)
- Investment is conceived as a group operation, in which diversification of risk is depended upon to yield a favorable average result
=> Corollary: acquiring a single stock is not an investment

- The individual issues are selected by means of qualitative and quantitative tests corresponding to those employed in the choice of fixed-value investments
=> Corollary: Analysis without peer comparion is not good

- A greater effort is made, than in the case of bond selection, to determine the future outlook of the issues considered
=> Implication: future outlook can be earning power, revenue trend, return dividend, capital flow etc. It is not defined.

So "future outlook" was categorized in 3 groups in their book
- The dividend rate and record (which was emphasized in Char 29)
- Income account factors (earning power)
- Balance sheet factor (asset value)

So, how to do qualitative and quantitive comparison between common stock and fixed income? One way is to use National economic elements related to investment
- national wealth and earning power will increase;
- such increase will reflect itself in the increased resources and profits of important companies
- such increases will in the main take place through the normal process of investment of new capital and reinvestmnet of undistributed earnings => Corollary: companies should not pay dividend if they can afford to. This could be very tricky. For example, if companies don't pay dividend but also don't provide premium to reinvested capital, investors would better off in other dividend pay companies. See Chapter 29.

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